Ciberseguridad y riesgo sistémico en el sistema financiero digitalizado: Perspectiva global, regional y latinoamericana (2020-2026)
Barra lateral del artículo
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
La acelerada digitalización del sistema financiero global ha reconfigurado los vectores del riesgo sistémico, incorporando dimensiones cibernéticas, algorítmicas y de concentración tecnológica que los marcos regulatorios heredados de la crisis de 2008 resultan insuficientes para capturar. El presente artículo de revisión tiene como objetivo analizar los riesgos sistémicos emergentes y los desafíos de ciberseguridad que enfrenta el sector financiero digitalizado entre 2020 y 2026, con referencia a los sistemas financieros global, latinoamericano y panameño. Mediante una revisión documental bibliográfica de enfoque cualitativo, se consultaron las bases de datos Web of Science, Scopus y Ebscohost, junto a repositorios del BIS, FMI y BID, aplicando criterios de inclusión por pertinencia temática y rigor metodológico, con un corpus final de 97 fuentes. Los hallazgos revelan que el contagio digital, la concentración oligopólica en proveedores tecnológicos de terceros, el colapso de ecosistemas de criptoactivos y los ataques de ransomware constituyen las amenazas más significativas para la estabilidad financiera global. En el caso de Panamá, su condición de centro financiero regional agrava la exposición al riesgo cibernético transfronterizo, mientras el marco regulatorio vigente presenta brechas frente a estándares internacionales. El estudio aporta un marco analítico interdisciplinario que integra la teoría clásica del riesgo sistémico con las dimensiones propias de la digitalización financiera, contribuyendo a orientar decisiones regulatorias y estratégicas en economías emergentes latinoamericanas.
Descargas
Detalles del artículo
Sección
Cómo citar
Referencias
Arner, D. W., Avgouleas, E., y Gibson, E. (2023). Financial stability, resolution, and the digital transformation of banking. European Business Organization Law Review, 24(2), 301–334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40804-023-00261-5
Auer, R., Farag, M., Lewrick, U., Orazem, L., y Zoss, M. (2023). Banking in the shadow of bitcoin? The institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. BIS Working Papers No. 1069. Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1069.htm
Avgouleas, E., y Kiayias, A. (2024). The promise and peril of decentralized finance and its regulation. Journal of International Economic Law, 27(2), 298–325. https://doi.org/10.1093/jiel/jgad042
Banco Central Europeo [BCE]. (2024). Supervisory expectations on AI governance in the banking sector. European Central Bank. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/ecb/pub/pdf/ssm.ai_governance_expectations.pdf
Banco de Inglaterra [Bank of England]. (2023). Financial stability report. December 2023.Bank of England. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financial-stability-report/2023/december-2023
Banco de Pagos Internacionales [BIS]. (2023a). Operational resilience: Financial stability and the role of supervisors (BIS Working Paper No. 1091). Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1091.htm
Banco de Pagos Internacionales [BIS]. (2023b). Principles for operational resilience. Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d516.htm
Banco de Pagos Internacionales [BIS]. (2024). Governance principles for the use of artificial intelligence by banks (BIS Consultative Document). Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d562.htm
Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo [BID]. (2023). Ciberseguridad: Riesgos, avances y el camino a seguir en América Latina y el Caribe. BID. https://doi.org/10.18235/0005285
Banco Mundial [World Bank]. (2022). The global findex database 2021: Financial inclusion, digital payments, and resilience in the age of COVID-19. World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1897-4
Banco Mundial [World Bank]. (2023). Fintech and the future of finance: Market and policy implications. World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1914-8
Borio, C., y Zhu, H. (2022). Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism? Journal of Financial Stability, 58, 100–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100955
Bouveret, A. (2022). Cyber risk for the financial sector: A framework for quantitative assessment. IMF Working Paper, WP/18/143 (actualizado 2022). International Monetary Fund.
Brunnermeier, M. K. (2022). Digitalization and its impact on financial stability. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 14(1), 37–62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-111621-101320
Brunnermeier, M. K., y Oehmke, M. (2013). Bubbles, financial crises, and systemic risk. En G. M. Constantinides, M. Harris y R. M. Stulz (Eds.), Handbook of the economics of finance (Vol. 2B, pp. 1221–1288). Elsevier.
Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos [CEMLA]. (2023). Infraestructura de los mercados financieros y riesgos cibernéticos en América Latina y el Caribe. CEMLA. https://www.cemla.org/publicaciones.html
Consejo de Estabilidad Financiera [FSB]. (2023). Enhancing the resilience of non-bank financial intermediation. Financial Stability Board. https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P060923-1.pdf
Consejo de Estabilidad Financiera [FSB]. (2024a). Artificial intelligence in finance: Overview of use cases and related risks. Financial Stability Board. https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P140524.pdf
Consejo de Estabilidad Financiera [FSB]. (2024b). Progress report on cross-border payments. Financial Stability Board. https://www.fsb.org/2024/10/progress-report-on-cross-border-payments-2024/
Consejo de Supervisores de Servicios Financieros [FSOC]. (2023). Report on digital asset financial stability risks and regulation. U.S. Department of the Treasury. https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/261/FSOC-Digital-Assets-Report-2023.pdf
Danielsson, J., Macrae, R., Shin, H. S., y Zigrand, J. P. (2022). The illusion of safety: Feedback effects, systemic risk, and artificial intelligence. Journal of Financial Economics, 146(3), 848–865. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.09.009
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D., y Ansar, S. (2023). Financial inclusion and fintech: New evidence and implications for the developing world. World Bank Economic Review, 37(3), 399–427. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhad002
Eling, M., y Schnell, W. (2023). The relationship between cyber risk and systemic risk in the financial sector. Journal of Financial Stability, 64, 101–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101118
Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI]. (2023). Panama: Financial sector assessment program. IMF Country Report No. 23/148. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/04/27/Panama
Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI]. (2024). Cyber risk: A growing threat to financial stability. Global Financial Stability Report, Chapter 3. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR
Fuster, A., Goldsmith-Pinkham, P., Ramadorai, T., y Walther, A. (2022). Predictably unequal? The effects of machine learning on credit markets. Journal of Finance, 77(1), 5–47. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13090
Kashyap, A. K., y Wetherilt, A. (2023). Cyber risk and financial stability: A framework for analysis.Journal of Financial Regulation, 9(1), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1093/jfr/fjad001
Kindleberger, C. P. (1978). Manias, panics and crashes: A history of financial crises. Basic Books.
Kopp, E., Kaffenberger, L., y Wilson, C. (2023). Cyber risk, market failures, and financial stability. IMF Working Paper, WP/23/141. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400218873.001
López Jiménez, J. M., y Martínez Peinado, A. (2024). DORA: Análisis del marco europeo de resiliencia operacional digital del sector financiero. Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, 46, 1–42.
Mastercard. (2023). The state of fraud and financial crime in 2023. Mastercard Fraud Center. https://www.mastercard.com/news/research-and-insights/2023/state-of-fraud-2023
Minsky, H. P. (1986). Stabilizing an unstable economy. Yale University Press.
Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., y Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. British Medical Journal, 372, n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
Philippon, T. (2023). The fintech opportunity revisited. Journal of Finance, 78(6), 2961–3003. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13283
Restoy, F. (2024). Regulating fintech: What is going on, and where are the challenges? BIS Papers No. 138. Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap138.pdf
Snyder, H. (2019). Literature review as a research methodology: An overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 104, 333–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.07.039
Stiglitz, J. E. (1993). The role of the state in financial markets. En M. Bruno y B. Pleskovic (Eds.), Proceedings of the World Bank annual conference on development economics 1993 (pp. 19–52). World Bank.
Stiglitz, J. E. (2010). Freefall: America, free markets, and the sinking of the world economy. W. W. Norton.
Superintendencia de Bancos de Panamá [SBP]. (2021). Resolución SBP No. 014-2021: Gestión del riesgo tecnológico y ciberseguridad. Superintendencia de Bancos de Panamá.
Superintendencia de Bancos de Panamá [SBP]. (2024). Informe de estabilidad financiera 2024. Superintendencia de Bancos de Panamá. https://www.superbancos.gob.pa
Tirole, J. (2006). The theory of corporate finance. Princeton University Press.
Unión Europea. (2022). Reglamento (UE) 2022/2554 del Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo, de 14 de diciembre de 2022, sobre la resiliencia operativa digital del sector financiero. Diario Oficial de la Unión Europea, L 333, 1–79. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/2554/oj
Vmware Carbon Black. (2021). Modern bank heists 4.0. VMware. https://www.vmware.com/content/dam/digitalmarketing/vmware/en/pdf/docs/vmwcb-report-modern-bank-heists.pdf
Woods, D., y Wreathall, J. (2023). Resilience engineering: New directions for measuring and maintaining safety in complex systems. Journal of Safety Research, 84, 227–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2022.11.006